When was the last time Manchester City secured consecutive victories in a roll and made light work of the opposition? It likely took you a moment to recall, didn’t it? That pause alone highlights the depth of the Manchester City crisis. What makes this decline even more unsettling is the uncertainty surrounding its resolution. The Brains of City’s operation, Pep Guardiola, now appears disoriented, as if imaginary birds are circling above his head in a comical display of confusion.
Manchester City Crisis, Capitulation, Explained
Is this downturn a tactical misstep, or are the players struggling to execute his vision on the pitch? The search for answers from the Spanish tactician grows increasingly elusive as what seems like a temporary stumble stretches into an alarming pattern, match after match.
Change is one of life’s few constants and as the old adage reminds us, empires rise and fall. We’ve seen this truth unfold in football. A decade ago, Manchester United’s dominance began to fade. Barcelona, once a symbol of superiority, descended into chaos. Just last season, Bayern Munich’s long-standing reign in Germany was toppled by Bayer Leverkusen’s spirited charge.
The Cityzens’ era of dominance was always bound to face its moment of reckoning. Just as they once revelled in the exhilarating heights of a rollercoaster’s peak, they now find themselves plummeting toward the inevitable trough. This steep decline hasn’t occurred in isolation — it’s the product of a unique convergence of factors that have disrupted their once-flawless system, creating a clog that has ultimately led to a breakdown.
To truly answer the diagnostic question, we must conduct an autopsy to unravel these converging factors and examine how they’ve contributed to Manchester City’s dramatic downturn. What are the cracks in their foundation, and how did they grow to undermine the juggernaut that once seemed unshakeable?
Manchester City Overdependency on the Effectiveness of the Central Attacking Route
In recent years, Manchester City has been one of the Premier League’s most dominant teams in central attacking play, with a remarkable percentage of their offensive build-up originating from the middle of the pitch. This isn’t surprising, considering the world-class midfielders Pep Guardiola has at his disposal. For instance, in the 2023/24 Premier League season, 31% of City’s attacks came through the middle, a figure that placed them joint-first alongside Brighton.
However, this heavy reliance on their midfield’s dependability became a glaring vulnerability. The only three matches City lost in that campaign were notably marked by the absence of Kevin De Bruyne due to injury and Rodri due to suspension. These absences exposed a critical flaw: a lack of depth to maintain their central dominance when their midfield stalwarts were unavailable and adaptability to also find equal dominance from the wings.
This issue has persisted into the new season, with Manchester City still relying heavily on central attacks, accounting for 31% of their offensive build-up — now second only to Aston Villa’s 32%. However, the problem has become even more pronounced. With Manchester City missing the heart of their midfield (Rodri sidelined for the season and Kevin De Bruyne battling ongoing fitness issues) there remains only so much a heart transplant could achieve, with replacements like Kovacic, Ilkay Gundogan, Matheus Nunes and Phil Foden struggling to give life to the system.
The cracks are further exposed by their inability to compensate through alternative approaches, such as wing play. This reliance on a compromised midfield has turned a once-unshakeable strength into a glaring weakness, exacerbating their struggles this season.
Porous Defensive Setup
Manchester City’s defensive frailties this season have been glaring, particularly in their inability to defend transitions effectively after turnovers. Despite leading the league in average possession percentage (62.5%), their defence has been excessively porous, struggling to organize quickly enough to thwart counter-attacks. For a team that allows the fewest shots per game in the Premier League (9.2), conceding an average of 1.4 goals per game is alarming, especially when compared to last season’s impressive 0.9 goals per game. The numbers are damning — City has already let in 26 goals in just 18 matches, nearly matching last season’s total of 34 in 38 games.
It has become a case of tired and aged legs for the backline setup for the Cityzens with the instability stemming largely from injuries to their key defenders. Manuel Akanji, a standout since his signing, has already missed three crucial games, including the Manchester derby, which ended in a costly defeat. Ruben Dias, another defensive linchpin, has only featured in 19 of the 27 matches City has played this season, missing six matches due to injuries. Meanwhile, Nathan Aké’s recurring fitness issues have limited him to just 10 appearances, forcing City to reshuffle their backline repeatedly.
Adding to the turmoil is Kyle Walker, who, while not injured, is visibly catching up with Father Time at the age of 34. His declining pace has left Manchester City vulnerable to swift counter-attacks, forcing Pep Guardiola into a tough dilemma: rely on the experienced Walker, who struggles against rapid transitions, or place faith in inexperienced academy graduates who are still adapting to the demands of elite-level football.
This compilation of injuries and declining performances has eroded City’s defensive stability leaving Pep with a daunting challenge to restore balance to the backline.
Loss of Hunger for more success
A downplayed yet significant factor in Manchester City’s decline could very well be their own unparalleled success. Having conquered virtually every major competition in club football, the relentless hunger that once fueled their dominance seems to have waned. In the earlier stages of their journey, the quest for the elusive Champions League trophy served as a powerful motivator, pushing the players to perform at the peak of their abilities. Every match was a step toward a dream, a drive to etch their names in footballing history.
Fast forward to the present, and that dream has become a reality. FA Cup? Conquered. Carabao Cup? Multiple times. Super Cup? Secured. Premier League? Ten titles are in the cabinet. Club World Cup? Check. And, of course, the pinnacle of club football — the Champions League — is now theirs. With all these achievements, the edge that came from chasing the unattainable has dulled.
In such a context, maintaining the same level of physical and mental endurance becomes increasingly challenging. The drive to sustain excellence in the face of mounting success requires more than tactical adjustments — it demands a recalibration of their mindset. A renewed intensity, a fresh hunger, is needed to push them beyond their current complacency. This is where sports psychologists and therapists become essential, working to amplify motivation, restore focus, and rebuild the mental strength necessary for Manchester City to rediscover their spark and strive for continued greatness.
Psychological Impact of Recent Defeats
We’re all familiar with the concept of momentum in football — how one victory can spark a run of form, propelling a team forward with renewed confidence. The adage “winning breeds confidence” is not just a saying but a principle that defines the rhythm of the sport. Unfortunately for Manchester City, the same dynamics apply to losses. Their current slump can be traced back to a single pivotal moment: the 2–1 defeat against Tottenham in the Carabao Cup. What began as an isolated loss quickly spiralled into a string of consecutive setbacks, plunging the team into a cycle of poor results and unfavourable narratives.
This downward trajectory was made possible by their diminished mental strength and energy. The resilience that once defined Manchester City now appears depleted, leaving them vulnerable to compounding failures. It’s akin to being repeatedly struck with heavy blows to the ribs, each one worsening the fractures without allowing time for recovery. The cumulative impact has left City with fragile bones, unable to withstand the pressure of adversity. Until they find a way to heal and restore their confidence, this cycle of poor performance threatens to persist.
Adaptation to Manchester City’s Tactics
For years, teams facing Manchester City have instinctively adopted low defensive blocks, tightening their lines to protect their goal. In the past, City’s brilliance in possession and their incisive attacking patterns meant they could pick apart even the most stubborn defences. But this season tells a different story. Teams are still sitting deep against Manchester City, with an average defensive line of 39.05 meters — the lowest against any Premier League side. However, what was once a surmountable challenge has now become a significant stumbling block for the reigning champions. This was seen in their contest against Everton who adopted a low block making the draw a particularly frustrating one for Manchester City during its crisis.
City’s hallmark high press, another key weapon in their arsenal, has also lost its edge. Opponents have adapted, learning to absorb the pressure more effectively and limiting Manchester City’s ability to force turnovers in dangerous areas. This diminished pressing efficiency is compounded by a visible lack of urgency from City, even in situations where they are trailing — a stark contrast to the relentless energy and determination of past seasons.
While other teams have evolved tactically to counter City’s once-dominant approach, the defending champions appear stuck in their primordial form. Opponents have progressed from mere survivors to proactive thinkers, akin to evolving from ape to man, while City struggles to outwit these evolved tactical strategies.
The Pep’s Dilemma
Pep Guardiola is widely regarded as one of the greatest tacticians ever to grace the football touchline — a genius whose innovations have reshaped how the game is played. However, Manchester City’s crisis and current downturn threatens to leave a blemish on his otherwise stellar résumé. Yet, upon closer inspection, this period of struggle seems less about Guardiola’s tactical brilliance fading and more about circumstances conspiring against him.
It’s natural for any manager to rely on a system that has delivered unparalleled success, but Guardiola’s task has been complicated by a wave of injuries and an unrelenting fixture schedule. The brains behind City’s dominance now finds himself at a crossroads, wrestling with two difficult questions: Are the tried-and-tested tactics no longer effective? Or is it simply that the players currently available lack the capability to execute them?
As Guardiola searches for the answer, the team has suffered consecutive defeats, and the cracks in their once-impenetrable fortress are becoming more visible. The challenge lies in bridging the gap between his vision and the reality on the pitch — a task made all the more daunting by injuries to key players and the evolving strategies of their opponents. While Guardiola’s tactical mind remains sharp, the circumstances have left even the brightest innovator grappling with solutions.
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A Quick Look into the 0–2 victory against Leicester.
A particularly striking observation in Manchester City’s 2-0 win against Leicester was the noticeable shift in their attacking dynamics. Their dependency on central attacking routes has been dialled back, with the percentage of attacks through the middle dropping to 26% — significantly below their season average of 31%. This adjustment signals a deliberate tactical tweak from Pep Guardiola, aiming to diversify their attacking approach and reduce predictability.
The shift yielded results, with both goals in their recent outing originating from well-orchestrated wing play by Phil Foden and Savinho. As the January transfer window approaches, all eyes will be on Manchester City to see which signings they make to maintain their intensity and depth, even amidst injuries. These reinforcements could play a crucial role in bolstering their squad and ensuring Guardiola has the tools needed to adapt his tactics effectively.
By addressing issues one step at a time and gradually fixing the cracks, Manchester City can now stage a more comprehensive rebuild and evolution. While the process will demand patience, it carries the promise of a renewed dominance that could resurrect their season.