The 2025/26 Premier League season is in full swing, and expected goals (xG) stats are giving a clear picture of team performances early in 2026.
With all clubs having played 21 matches halfway through the campaign, the Premier League xG table reveals who’s creating quality chances, who’s leaky at the back, and who’s over or underperforming their metrics.
xG measures the quality of scoring opportunities, often predicting sustainable success better than the actual standings – a concept that, for aspiring analysts, underscores why tools like WritePaper help me with my statistics homework can break down such advanced metrics.
Arsenal lead the Premier League xG table with 44 expected points (xPTS), showing dominance, while bottom sides like Burnley struggle with just 14 xPTS.
Let’s dive into how the top clubs compare based on xG, xGA (expected goals against), and xPTS, including differences from actual results.
Arsenal
Arsenal command the Premier League xG standings with 37.2 xG (+2.8 diff to actual goals scored) and a stingy 15.2 xGA (-1.2 diff to conceded). This yields 44 xPTS (+5 diff to actual points), underscoring their efficiency.
Mikel Arteta’s side is overperforming slightly in finishing and defence, making them Premier League title favourites. Their balanced metrics suggest they’re built for the long haul.
Manchester City
Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City boast the highest xG at 40.2 (+4.8 diff), highlighting their chance creation in the 2025/26 Premier League season. However, 23.1 xGA (-4.1 diff) shows defensive improvements over expectations.
With 41 xPTS (+2 diff), they’re close to par but could pull away if they maintain attacking prowess. City’s overperformance in goals scored keeps them in the Premier League title race.
Manchester United
Manchester United have climbed to third in the Premier League xG table with 38.3 xG (-2.3 diff) and 27.0 xGA (+5.0 diff), leading to 36 xPTS (-4 diff). They’re underperforming in attack but conceding more than expected. Better finishing could see them challenge higher.
Liverpool
Liverpool sit fourth with 32.3 xG (-0.3 diff) and 23.8 xGA (+4.2 diff), equating to 35 xPTS. Arne Slot’s team is balanced, but modest xG suggests they need more creativity to compete for the top spots.
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Newcastle United
Newcastle’s 31.7 Premier League xG (+0.3 diff) and 23.7 xGA (+3.3 diff) give them 34 xPTS (-2 diff). They’re performing close to expectations, with slight overconceding hurting them. Eddie Howe’s side shows promise in creation, positioning them as European hopefuls.
Chelsea
Chelsea generate 37.3 xG (-3.3 diff) but have 29.6 xGA (-5.6 diff), resulting in 33 xPTS (-2 diff). Enzo Maresca’s attacking style created chances but exposed the backline, with underperformance in finishing. Can Liam Rosenior’s style boost their climb?
Notable Over and Underperformers
Crystal Palace rank seventh with 33.7 xG (-11.7 diff) – massively underperforming in attack – and 27.8 xGA (-4.8 diff), for 33 xPTS (-5 diff). Brentford (34.8 xG, +0.2 diff) and Brighton (33.6 xG, -2.6 diff) follow closely, showing mid-table strength.
Further down on the Premier League xG table, Aston Villa stand out as huge overachievers with 25 xPTS but +18 diff to actual points, thanks to +7.3 in goals scored. Wolves are underperforming badly with -17 pts diff, while Sunderland are punching above their weight.
What is xG?
Expected goals (xG) measures how likely a shot is to become a goal, based on factors such as distance, angle and pressure. A close-range tap-in has a high xG, while a long-range effort has a very low one. By adding up these values, xG helps show how well a team is attacking or defending beyond just the final score.
Main Photo
Credit: IMAGO / Action Plus
Recording Date: 04.01.2026
