Estonia in Europe: 2024/25 Coefficient Preview

The 2024/25 European season is quickly approaching, with 236 clubs set to compete in UEFA’s continental club competitions this season.

With the first qualifying round draws two weeks away, Extratime Talk will be providing a comprehensive coefficient preview. Between now and then, each country will be previewed, and all clubs participating in Europe for the 2024/25 season are discussed.

In these articles, we will provide analyses of what to expect from each country in Europe, explore what is on the line from a coefficient standpoint, and the keys to succeeding, in that country’s case.

As we have now reach the 12th article of this series, Estonia is the country that is under the spotlight.

Estonia In Europe: Country Profile

Previous Season Coefficient (Rank)0.125 (55th)
Previous Season’s 5-Year Coefficient (Rank)7.207 (48th)
Starting 5-Year Coefficient (Rank)6.332 (46th)

It would be very impressive if Estonia managed to do worse than their 0.125 showing last term. Just two years on from their 3.666-point haul – which is currently the country’s record seasonal coefficient haul – Estonia hit rock bottom. Across 10 European matches involving Estonian sides last summer, only once did any of them avoid defeat. That came from Paide, who drew against B36.

As a result, a reaction will be required from Estonia’s representatives this time around. They can ill-afford a second consecutive season with virtually no points. While Estonia will not slip into the bottom five of the five-year country coefficient ranking this season, they could start there next term if things seldom improve.

Estonia In Europe: Club Profile

ClubQualified AsRound of EntryTotal European SeasonsLast Season’s Performance5-Year Club Coefficient (2023/24)5-Year Country Coefficient Contribution, 2023/24 (%)
Flora TallinnDomestic ChampionUCL Q130UECL Q311.0004.708 (65.32%)
FCI Levadia TallinnCup WinnerUECL Q122UECL Q16.0001.208 (16.76%)
Tallinna KalevDomestic Third PlaceUECL Q1DebutN/A1.441N/A
Paide LinnameeskondDomestic Fourth PlaceUECL Q15UECL Q15.0000.917 (12.72%)

Record champions Flora Tallinn has not progressed from a European tie any each of their last three attempts. This is after they qualified for the UEFA Conference League’s group stage in the competition’s inaugural year. They might have contributed about two thirds of Estonia’s coefficient over the last five years, but it will be up to Flora to lead Estonia’s charge up the rankings.

Cup winners FCI Levadia Tallinn, like Flora, is a European regular. The Meistriliiga runners-up has only moved past a European tie once in the last seven years. That is a dreary record for the country’s second best club. Across 21 European forays, Levadia has won two ties in the same season twice. As they lead the league after 14 rounds, there may be optimism that it could translate to a very good summer.

Tallinna Kalev finished third in the league last calendar year, earning them a first-ever continental spot. Seeing that they have already returned to a midtable position in the league this year, anything they collect in Europe this summer should be seen as a bonus.

Paide Linnameeskond is back in Europe for a fifth season in a row. In that time they managed one win and three draws across 11 games. Their best showing came in 2022/23, where they made Q3 of the Conference League. Outside of that, they have not gotten past Q1 in Europe.

Estonia’s Season Ambitions

Estonia’s season ambition should be quite simple: make up for last year’s debacle. At least 1.500 points should be enough to keep them well outside of the bottom five for next year. They may not necessarily need a massive year like 2021/22, but they should strive for 1.500 to 2.000 points at least.

The target of 1.500-2.000 points is rather attainable for Estonia. That coefficient haul is equivalent of six to eight wins. While expecting a Tallinna Kalev side that will be unseeded in UECL Q1 to pick up many points is rather unreasonable, the other three teams have a chance to do exactly that.

What a Successful Season Would Look Like for Estonia

Three of Estonia’s four European representatives for next season have their own coefficient. They are also all seeded in the Q1 draw. So, a successful season from an Estonian perspective would be all three of Flora, Levadia, and Paide picking up wins.

In saying that, however, Reece and Nate Broughton from the Estonian Football Podcast think it is not so simple for Flora, even if they are indeed seeded in UCL Q1. “It’ll be a big ask for Flora, as some of the unseeded teams are still good sides,” said Nate when asked about Flora’s chance of passing UCL Q1 this summer. Reece added that Flora is alsoin a transitional phase: the squad is completely different from 2022 when they qualified for the group stage of the UECL. So I am not very optimistic (about them making the league phase again.

So, keeping that in mind, if at least two of Flora, Levadia and Paide can make at least Q2 of the competition they entered, that will have to be considered a good year for Estonia’s standards.

What to Expect From the Estonia’s Clubs in 2024/25

Many Estonian football fans will not expect the four sides to have an encore showing from 2023/24. That is fair: as previously mentioned, it would be quite difficult for Estonia to do as badly as last year (or worse). The country’s three biggest coefficient collectors are together once more, and should be able to add something to the coefficient.

But, just how much will they add? We can expect somewhere between 1.000 and 1.500 points from Estonia. It is unlikely that this year’s results will be anywhere year that golden 2021/22 season. It is simply a matter of bettering last year’s horror show, while setting the foundations for next season so they do not have to fear the bottom five. About 1.250-1.500 points should be enough for them to start next season outside of the five lowest ranked positions in the country coefficient ranking.

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