Kazakhstan in Europe: 2024/25 Coefficient Preview

The 2024/25 European season is quickly approaching, with 236 clubs set to compete in UEFA’s continental club competitions this season.

With the first qualifying round draws occurring next week, Extratime Talk will be providing a comprehensive coefficient preview. Between now and then, each country will be previewed, and all clubs participating in Europe for the 2024/25 season are discussed.

In these articles, we will provide analyses of what to expect from each country in Europe. We will explore what is on the line from a coefficient standpoint, and the keys to succeeding, in that country’s case.

We have now reached the 38th article of the series, which will touch on Kazakhstan, and what to expect from their clubs in Europe this season.

Kazakhstan in Europe: Country Profile

Previous Season Coefficient (Rank)3.125 (30th)
Previous Season’s 5-Year Coefficient (Rank)11.500 (33rd)
Starting 5-Year Coefficient (Rank)8.125 (39th)

Kazakhstan had a fantastic 2023/24 season, climbing their way into 33rd spot, thanks in large part to FC Astana making the Conference League group stage. Astana even had a shot at qualifying for the knockout rounds, which would have had Kazakhstan start this season in the top 38.

However, the country enters 2024/25 in 30th place, just 0.250 points behind Latvia in 38th. Moreover, the chance at 33rd place is still more than realistic, as the distance between them and Ireland is 1.500 points. If the four teams can continue on the trajectory of last season, then a top 38 finish is very likely, while 33rd would still be a possibility as well.

Kazakhstan in Europe: Club Profile

ClubQualified AsRound of EntryTotal European SeasonsLast Season’s Performance5-Year Club Coefficient (2023/24)5-Year Country Coefficient Contribution, 2023/24 (%)
OrdabasyDomestic ChampionUCL Q18UECL Q24.0000.875 (7.61%)
TobolCup WinnerUEL Q212UECL Q37.5002.125 (18.48%)
FC AstanaDomestic Runner-upUECL Q2, Main Path12UECL Group Stage10.0004.250 (46.96%)
AktobeDomestic Third PlaceUECL Q113UECL Play-off Round2.3000.375 (3.26%)

In 2023, for the first time in club history, Ordabasy won the league title. It was a momentous occasion for the club, who has played in Europe several times within the last 15 times. Their record is not all that great though: across seven previous continental showings, the club from Shymkent has progressed in a European tie just twice. They are unseeded in UCL Q1, which seldom helps them.

Tobol provided one of the biggest shocks of last summer’s qualifying, stunning Swiss giants FC Basel in UECL Q2. That paved the way for them to make the playoff round before blowing out to Viktoria Plzeň. That impressive run has them seeded in UEL Q1, giving them a great chance to return to the playoff round this summer.

League runners-up FC Astana has been Kazakhstan’s mainstay in Europe over the last 12 years. They have made the group stages on several occasions, including last fall’s UECL proper. It will not be as easy for the capital-based side this time around. They are seeded in UECL Q2 and Q3, but not in the playoff round. Thus, Astana would do very well to make the UECL’s league phase this year.

Rounding out the European representatives is Aktobe, who finished third. They have the most European seasons of any Kazakh club, with this being their 13th. That is despite Aktobe missing out on European club competition action from 2016/17 to 2022/23, before returning last term. They will be unseeded in UECL Q1, although they do have reason for hope. After all, they did make UECL Q3 last summer.

Kazakhstan’s Season Ambitions

The ambition for Kazakhstan would be to chase the countries above them for 33rd spot. They were successful in doing so last season, so there should be reason for optimism. Even if Kazakhstan cannot repeat the magic of last summer, a place in the top 38 should be satisfactory at the bare minimum. Anything less should be seen as a failure.

As for coefficients, Kazakhstan did earn 3.125 points, which, along with Iceland, Slovenia and Kosovo, they were the only countries outside of the top 30 to reach (or surpass) 3.000 points. Therefore, the Kazakh clubs should be striving for that number again. Fail to reach that target, and suddenly 33rd spot becomes quite unlikely.

What a Good Year Would Look Like for Kazakhstan

A good year for Kazakh football would be seeing the four clubs all progress at least once. On top of that, a team in the league phase is required, with much of the pressure coming on Ordabasy as champions. Tobol will also be key, seeing that, like Ordabasy, they will have a minimum of four games in Europe. For Astana, they will be expected to make the most of their seeded status. As for Aktobe, getting through one round should be seen as a victory.

As for coefficients, a good year for Kazakhstan would start off by earning at least 2.500 points. After all, they only have 1.000 to defend from 2020/21. If they can earn at least 2.5x that score, it is a good year. However, as previously mentioned, Kazakhstan should be striving for 3.000 points or more, which would be pivotal to their hopes for 33rd. Yet, 2.500 should at least be enough for 38th.

What to Expect from Kazakhstan in 2024/25

Kazakhstan is looking to build off an amazing 2023/24 season. And, they do have a strong group of clubs to challenge for 33rd again. The country’s football is deceptively strong, and could even be a regular in the top 33 within the next couple of years if the likes of Tobol and Ordabasy continue on their trajectory. While the country coefficient is still heavily reliant on Astana, one could argue that Kazakhstan would be okay if Astana was to miss out on Europe for one season.

As to what we can expect, they will be in the mix for 33rd again, that seems pretty certain. They might just miss out though, as most of the teams will have a target on their back from last term, especially Tobol. Any hopes of a team making the league phase falls on Ordabasy realistically, so if they miss out, Kazakhstan will most likely be without a team in the fall. That would see their hopes for 33rd fall by the wayside, with even 38th place in jeopardy.

Nevertheless, expect a decent year with around 2.000 to 2.750 points. That should be enough for at least a top 38 place, which would still be fair.

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